Impacto del gasto de inversión en el crecimiento económico de la provincia de El Oro, 2011-2022

Steeven Alfredo Chimbo Ayala; Jorge Guido Sotomayor Pereira

doi:10.70577/asce.v4i4.459

Authors

Steeven Alfredo Chimbo Ayala Universidad Técnica de Machala https://orcid.org/0009-0007-1577-0111
Jorge Guido Sotomayor Pereira Universidad Técnica de Machala https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9093-4004

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.70577/asce.v4i4.459

Keywords:

Public investment; Economic growth; Gross Value Added; Regional development; Fiscal policy; Ecuador.

Abstract

This study analyzes the relationship between investment spending and economic growth in the province of El Oro during the period 2011-2022. Using an explanatory quantitative approach with a descriptive-correlational design, the time series of investment spending and provincial Gross Value Added (GVA) are examined, complemented by employment and tax collection indicators. The results show that public investment had a positive effect on economic growth, with an asymmetric and discontinuous evolution due to strong budget volatility. It is noted that periods of moderate and sustained investment generated more stable growth than those with high disbursements followed by severe contractions. Likewise, endogenous dynamics are identified in strategic sectors such as agro-exports, mining, and trade, which reduce the exclusive dependence on state investment. These findings demonstrate that the efficiency, continuity, and strategic planning of investment spending are determining factors in boosting regional development and consolidating the province's structural resilience.

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