Análisis de un modelo epidemiológico para enfermedades sin recuperación y su aplicación a la evolución de la brucelosis en una población de bovinos en la provincia de Chimborazo

Franklin David Espinoza Sanaguano; Carlos Eduardo Cova Salaya

doi:10.70577/ASCE/2639.2655/2025

Authors

Franklin David Espinoza Sanaguano Universidad Nacional de Chimborazo (UNACH) https://orcid.org/0009-0004-5019-5608
Carlos Eduardo Cova Salaya Escuela Superior Politécnica de Chimborazo (ESPOCH) https://orcid.org/0009-0003-8232-6206

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.70577/ASCE/2639.2655/2025

Keywords:

SIS model; Brucellosis; Cattle; Diseases; Differential systems

Abstract

This study focused on the analysis of a Susceptible–Infected–Susceptible (SIS) epidemiological model applied to bovine brucellosis in the province of Chimborazo, Ecuador. As the disease does not confer lasting immunity in affected animals, it remained a persistent and challenging public health problem. The main objective was to describe the dynamics of the model’s solutions through the qualitative theory of differential systems, with the aim of establishing effective control protocols. A quantitative and descriptive approach was employed, integrating local epidemiological data from the period 2023–2025 with numerical simulations implemented in Python, using open-source libraries to solve the differential system and analyze the stability of equilibrium points. The results showed that the basic reproductive number exceeded one, confirming the endemic nature of brucellosis in Chimborazo. Simulations of control scenarios revealed that vaccination moderately reduced , while biosecurity measures produced an additional decrease. However, the combined strategy of both interventions achieved a synergistic effect, bringing the system closer to the eradication threshold. It was concluded that the SIS model constituted a valid tool for understanding the disease dynamics, and that the simultaneous implementation of vaccination and biosecurity strategies represented the most effective approach to reduce prevalence. This work provided a methodological framework applicable to the management of non-recoverable diseases in similar animal populations.

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