Análisis estadístico y espacial de los determinantes del acceso a transferencias no contributivas en Ecuador mediante un modelo Probit

Jorge Alberto Sanango Burbano; Edison Bolívar  Reza Paocarina

doi:10.70577/asce.v4i4.470

Authors

Jorge Alberto Sanango Burbano Universidad Politécnica Estatal del Carchi https://orcid.org/0009-0000-3025-6611
Edison Bolívar Reza Paocarina Universidad Politécnica Estatal del Carchi https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1276-8127

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.70577/asce.v4i4.470

Keywords:

Social inequality; Statistical models; Social policy; Poverty.

Abstract

This study analyzes territorial and sociodemographic inequalities in the distribution of non-contributory bonuses and pensions in Ecuador, with an emphasis on the Human Development Bonus. The research was based on a quantitative, non-experimental, cross-sectional design, based on the analysis of administrative records from SIIMIES and data from the National Survey of Employment, Unemployment, and Underemployment. A Probit econometric model was estimated, complemented by geostatistical techniques (Moran's I index and LISA analysis), with the aim of identifying the factors associated with the probability of receiving the BDH and the spatial patterns of concentration of beneficiaries. The results show that household income has a significant negative effect (β = −0.087; p < 0.001), while being female (AME = 0.0597; p < 0.001) and living in an urban area (AME = 0.0269; p < 0.001) increase the probability of access. The model has high predictive power (AUC = 0.85) and positive spatial autocorrelation (Moran I = 0.0376; p = 0.0136), reflecting a non-homogeneous territorial distribution, with pockets of high concentration in urban parishes in the coastal region and the presence of High–High and Low–High clusters in the LISA analysis. The study concludes that structural disparities persist, requiring a review of territorial and sociodemographic targeting criteria, suggesting the integration of advanced analytical tools to optimize the management of social protection policies.

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