Modelado de escorrentías urbanas e impacto en la calidad del agua bajo escenarios de cambio climático
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.70577/asce.v4i4.496Palabras clave:
Clima; Escorrentía; Erosión; Hidrología; Modelos; Predicción.Resumen
Las ciudades cada vez están más impermeabilizadas y ante el cambio climático, se espera mayor frecuencia de lluvias intensas. Esto intensifica la escorrentía, arrastrando contaminantes a cuerpos de agua receptores. Conocer cómo evolucionarán estos impactos es necesario para planificar infraestructuras verdes y drenajes sostenibles por lo que el uso de modelos permitiría evaluar cómo los eventos extremos previstos por cambio climático modificarán la escorrentía urbana y su carga contaminante (nutrientes, metales, sedimentos) en una cuenca urbana específica en función de cambio volumen de escorrentía, caudales pico, concentraciones de nitrógeno (NO₃⁻, NH₄⁺), fósforo, sólidos suspendidos (TSS), metales disueltos (Pb, Zn). Variables independientes: intensidad de precipitación (escenarios actual y futuro). En este sentido se hizo una revisión sistemática de 180 artículo en base de datos Scopus, PubMed, SciELO, Latindex, Redalyc y Google Scholar de los cuales se seleccionaron 24 que abordan como modelado puede estimar las escorrentías urbanas y impacto en la calidad del agua bajo escenarios de cambio climático, encontrando los resultados que cada día los modelos de predicción son más efectivos para estimar la escorrentía, cuyo aumento es producto de la degradación ambiental, como consecuencia del cambio climático y cuyo estimación ayudaría a tomar decisiones para prevenir los daños a infraestructura y sobre la integridad de las personas.
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Derechos de autor 2025 José Fabricio Cabrera Toro, Walther Israel Benítez Soxo, Davis Wilson Torres Torres, Jorge Astudillo Feijoo
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